Thursday, Sep 29th

Last updateThu, 29 Sep 2016 1pm

You are here: Home Content Shout it Out What Brown’s Win Over Coakley in Massachusetts Means for Politics in New York
first
  
last
 
 
start
stop
Meet Me at the Station for Dinner

Meet Me at the Station for Dinner

My destination this week was to visit Modern on the Rails in Mamaroneck. It is h...

Your Skin: Questions and Answers from an Expert

Your Skin: Questions and Answers from an Expert

Dermatologist Dr. Jennifer Goldwasser is one of Scarsdale's most sought after sp...

Scarsdale Residents turn Straw into Fall Fun

Scarsdale Residents turn Straw into Fall Fun

They managed to keep the crows at bay but couldn't keep Scarsdale residents away...

Community Weighs Plans for Library Renovation: Scarsdale Forum Invites Residents to Participate in a Survey

Community Weighs Plans for Library Renovation: Scarsdale Forum Invites Residents to Participate in a Survey

The community continues to consider a proposed library renovation that would mod...

first
  
last
 
 
start
stop

What Brown’s Win Over Coakley in Massachusetts Means for Politics in New York

The immediate political beneficiaries in New York of the Scott Brown romp over Martha Coakley are Rick Lazio and Harold Ford, Jr.
 
Last fall we in New York saw precursors to the Brown win over Coakley in Massachusetts:  incumbent Democratic county executives (arguably doing a decent job) were ousted in Westchester (Andy Spano) and in Nassau (Tom Suozzi).  In neighboring New Jersey Chris Christie defeated Rob Corzine for governor.  What are the implications of the Brown win over Coakley for the statewide races coming up in New York for 2010? 
 
Governor:  While Governor David Paterson's poll numbers have risen slightly -- almost no one believes today that his aspiration for winning a full term in his own right will be realized.  The probable scenario -- likely to accelerate now with the Brown win in Massachusetts, will be for Governor Paterson to announce in February or early March that in lieu of spending time fundraising and running that he will instead opt out and spend the next year focusing on the cataclysmic state budget and economy.  This will pave the way for Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to ascend to the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.  Cuomo will likely attempt to re-run the Eliot Spitzer campaign of 2006 -- relying on his AG bona fides, name recognition, and nostalgia for his father, Mario.  The leading GOP candidate right now is former Congressman Rick Lazio, who will endeavor to copy the Scott Brown playbook -- and attempt to separate the man from the myth.  Lazio will have things to say about Cuomo's reign as HUD secretary during the Clinton administration.  Lazio sat on the House Banking Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity -- which oversaw some of the programs run by Cuomo at the time.  Moreover, Andrew Cuomo is not Eliot Spitzer (and I mean the 2006 pre-scandal version), and Rick Lazio will have much broader appeal statewide than the 2006 GOP candidate, John Faso.  Lazio is a fiscal conservative and a social moderate -- the right (and only) recipe for a successful GOP stateside candidate in New York (ala George Pataki).  And Lazio has substantially better name recognition in New York today than Scott Brown did in Massachusetts two weeks ago (and George Pataki in January 2006). Lazio is personable and affable (like Scott Brown).  Lazio has been racking up local endorsements -- most recently from the Nassau County GOP.   And I love Lazio's proposal to convene a state constitutional convention to dissolve the two houses of the state legislature and replace them with a unicameral legislative body.  If Lazio is the GOP candidate and could inflict some doubt and damage onto the Cuomo inevitability machine -- he could conceivably be the next governor.
 
US Senator:  while Chuck Schumer and the Obama administration cleared the decks of most of the stronger primary opponent possibilities against Senator Kirstin Gillibrand, doubts about her viability still exist - and it's looking more and more like former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford, Jr., may actually take on the mission of a primary challenge.  Conventional wisdom says that the only viable primary challenge to Gillibrand would be from the left -- given her prior, pro-gun, blue dog record representing a congressional district in rural upstate New York. While fringe candidate John Tasini is mounting a primary challenge from the far left, recent New York transplant Harold Ford, Jr., has taken a leave from his Merrill Lynch gig and is strongly considering a run.  Gillibrand is already branding Ford as an extreme conservative -- but her criticism of Ford rings hollow coming from the former Blue Dog. Ford’s pro-choice credentials will probably be his toughest sell in New York – he has been for parent notification and opposed to partial birth abortions. Both Gillibrand and Ford had to modulate their positions on issues to satisfy their more parochial constituencies in upstate New York and Tennessee respectively.  While Ford's introduction to the New York chattering class was a somewhat inartful interview in the New York Times, Ford is no Caroline Kennedy.  He's an experienced, articulate, smart pol with the potential to go toe to toe with Gillibrand in the fundraising department.  If the political climate continues to sour for Democrats nationally -- and in New York specifically -- Ford would be the stronger Democratic candidate against a Republican such as Bruce Blakeman or George Pataki in that Ford  could more plausibly run as an outside, anti-establishment candidate.

Speaking of Republicans, the lack of a marquis GOP candidate for the Gillibrand seat at this point in the cycle is puzzling.  The decliners so far include Rudy Giuliani, Long Island Congressman Peter King, and Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld.  Former Governor George Pataki has not officially declined but all indications point to him opting out and making a full time run for the White House in 2012.  So far that leaves as the only announced GOP candidate, Bruce Blakeman, a former Nassau County legislator, Port Authority board member, former candidate for State Comptroller and brief candidate for New York City Mayor.  He's recently been noted because his ex, Nancy Shevell is dating Paul McCartney.  If the Democrats stay with Kirstin Gillibrand, and runs as the establishment/favorite/incumbent -- Blakeman could gain traction.
 
Senator Schumer's seat is up in 2010 as well -- but no one seriously sees him at risk.

David A. Singer is a former political consultant/campaign professional and political junkie currently toiling as a lawyer in Westchester and managing real estate and media investments.

Comments   

0 #1 feiner vulnerable 2010-01-20 23:41
closer to home, feiner, a career politician, is facing a scandal a week. he is quite vulnerable and his support is tissue thin. more financial blasts are expected implicating his reckless conduct.

his hand picked town clerk is now up on ethics charges and feiner was just caught violating town law by using the town's attorney for his own personal lawsuit against the parking district.

most notably, feiner supporters have abandoned him (as we saw in the spano-astorino race).

greenburgh's liberation may yet happen.

You have no rights to post comments

Parenting

New STEP Student Zaria Cash and Host Family Each Embrace New Experiences

New STEP Student Zaria Cash and Host Family Each Embrace New Experiences

Junior year is a daunting one for any Scarsdale student. Just when academic rigor and extracurricular commitments are peaking, the college application...

READ MORE...

Shout it Out

The Buck Stops Where?

The Buck Stops Where?

It seems that the mismanagement of the 2016 village-wide revaluation in Scarsdale has raised questions about the overall competence of village managem...

READ MORE...

Around Town

Meet Me at the Station for Dinner

Meet Me at the Station for Dinner

My destination this week was to visit Modern on the Rails in Mamaroneck. It is housed in the second oldest and surviving train station building on the...

READ MORE...

Arts and Entertainment

Raiders Cheerleaders and Softball Tournament Champs

Raiders Cheerleaders and Softball Tournament Champs

The SHS Raiders Football team triumphed over White Plains 62-30 at the September 23rd homecoming game. The audience was bouyed by a great performance ...

READ MORE...

On Our Minds

Volunteers Needed to Plant Village Field

Volunteers Needed to Plant Village Field

The Village of Scarsdale, its Conservation Advisory Council and the Friends of Scarsdale Parks are working to transform an unused grass field at Palme...

READ MORE...

The Goods

Where to Worship for the High Holidays

Where to Worship for the High Holidays

The High Holidays are upon us with Rosh Hashanah beginning on Sunday night October 1 followed by Yom Kippur, which starts on Tuesday evening October 1...

READ MORE...

On Our Radar

Sixth Annual Galaxy Forum at SHS

Sixth Annual Galaxy Forum at SHS

Under the supervision of SHS Science Department Chair Nicole Pisano, approximately 200 students from the Biology, Geology, Earth Sciences, and Physics...

READ MORE...

Neighborhood News

Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater

Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater

(This is an editorial written by Scarsdale10583 site founder Joanne Wallenstein) Watching the presidential debate on Monday night and reflecting on re...

READ MORE...

People

Your Skin: Questions and Answers from an Expert

Your Skin: Questions and Answers from an Expert

Dermatologist Dr. Jennifer Goldwasser is one of Scarsdale's most sought after specialists. With an impressive resume, she's a recognized expert in her...

READ MORE...

Bulletin Board

Scarsdale Residents turn Straw into Fall Fun

Scarsdale Residents turn Straw into Fall Fun

They managed to keep the crows at bay but couldn't keep Scarsdale residents away.

Despite the chilly weather last Sunday, the 25th, the annual Scarecro...

READ MORE...

first
  
last
 
 
start
stop

Programs for Scarsdale Kids