Sunday, Apr 19th

Last updateFri, 17 Apr 2015 1pm

You are here: Home Content Shout it Out What Brown’s Win Over Coakley in Massachusetts Means for Politics in New York
first
  
last
 
 
start
stop
Comedy Night at the Center@862

Comedy Night at the Center@862

Local storyteller and former Scarsdale resident Sandi Marx will perform on Satur...

Mayor Announces Almost $1.3mm in Funding for Road Repairs in Scarsdale

Mayor Announces Almost $1.3mm in Funding for Road Repairs in Scarsdale

At his first official Village Board meeting on Tuesday night April 14th, Scaarsd...

Anti-Semitic Incident at Local Synagogue

Anti-Semitic Incident at Local Synagogue

Rabbi Jeffrey Brown and President Donna Ruskin of Scarsdale Synagogue Tremont Te...

Mayor Defends Second Tax Revaluation at BOT Meeting

Mayor Defends Second Tax Revaluation at BOT Meeting

Former Trustee Robert Harrison and Scarsdale Forum President Bob Berg continued ...

first
  
last
 
 
start
stop

What Brown’s Win Over Coakley in Massachusetts Means for Politics in New York

The immediate political beneficiaries in New York of the Scott Brown romp over Martha Coakley are Rick Lazio and Harold Ford, Jr.
 
Last fall we in New York saw precursors to the Brown win over Coakley in Massachusetts:  incumbent Democratic county executives (arguably doing a decent job) were ousted in Westchester (Andy Spano) and in Nassau (Tom Suozzi).  In neighboring New Jersey Chris Christie defeated Rob Corzine for governor.  What are the implications of the Brown win over Coakley for the statewide races coming up in New York for 2010? 
 
Governor:  While Governor David Paterson's poll numbers have risen slightly -- almost no one believes today that his aspiration for winning a full term in his own right will be realized.  The probable scenario -- likely to accelerate now with the Brown win in Massachusetts, will be for Governor Paterson to announce in February or early March that in lieu of spending time fundraising and running that he will instead opt out and spend the next year focusing on the cataclysmic state budget and economy.  This will pave the way for Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to ascend to the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.  Cuomo will likely attempt to re-run the Eliot Spitzer campaign of 2006 -- relying on his AG bona fides, name recognition, and nostalgia for his father, Mario.  The leading GOP candidate right now is former Congressman Rick Lazio, who will endeavor to copy the Scott Brown playbook -- and attempt to separate the man from the myth.  Lazio will have things to say about Cuomo's reign as HUD secretary during the Clinton administration.  Lazio sat on the House Banking Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity -- which oversaw some of the programs run by Cuomo at the time.  Moreover, Andrew Cuomo is not Eliot Spitzer (and I mean the 2006 pre-scandal version), and Rick Lazio will have much broader appeal statewide than the 2006 GOP candidate, John Faso.  Lazio is a fiscal conservative and a social moderate -- the right (and only) recipe for a successful GOP stateside candidate in New York (ala George Pataki).  And Lazio has substantially better name recognition in New York today than Scott Brown did in Massachusetts two weeks ago (and George Pataki in January 2006). Lazio is personable and affable (like Scott Brown).  Lazio has been racking up local endorsements -- most recently from the Nassau County GOP.   And I love Lazio's proposal to convene a state constitutional convention to dissolve the two houses of the state legislature and replace them with a unicameral legislative body.  If Lazio is the GOP candidate and could inflict some doubt and damage onto the Cuomo inevitability machine -- he could conceivably be the next governor.
 
US Senator:  while Chuck Schumer and the Obama administration cleared the decks of most of the stronger primary opponent possibilities against Senator Kirstin Gillibrand, doubts about her viability still exist - and it's looking more and more like former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford, Jr., may actually take on the mission of a primary challenge.  Conventional wisdom says that the only viable primary challenge to Gillibrand would be from the left -- given her prior, pro-gun, blue dog record representing a congressional district in rural upstate New York. While fringe candidate John Tasini is mounting a primary challenge from the far left, recent New York transplant Harold Ford, Jr., has taken a leave from his Merrill Lynch gig and is strongly considering a run.  Gillibrand is already branding Ford as an extreme conservative -- but her criticism of Ford rings hollow coming from the former Blue Dog. Ford’s pro-choice credentials will probably be his toughest sell in New York – he has been for parent notification and opposed to partial birth abortions. Both Gillibrand and Ford had to modulate their positions on issues to satisfy their more parochial constituencies in upstate New York and Tennessee respectively.  While Ford's introduction to the New York chattering class was a somewhat inartful interview in the New York Times, Ford is no Caroline Kennedy.  He's an experienced, articulate, smart pol with the potential to go toe to toe with Gillibrand in the fundraising department.  If the political climate continues to sour for Democrats nationally -- and in New York specifically -- Ford would be the stronger Democratic candidate against a Republican such as Bruce Blakeman or George Pataki in that Ford  could more plausibly run as an outside, anti-establishment candidate.

Speaking of Republicans, the lack of a marquis GOP candidate for the Gillibrand seat at this point in the cycle is puzzling.  The decliners so far include Rudy Giuliani, Long Island Congressman Peter King, and Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld.  Former Governor George Pataki has not officially declined but all indications point to him opting out and making a full time run for the White House in 2012.  So far that leaves as the only announced GOP candidate, Bruce Blakeman, a former Nassau County legislator, Port Authority board member, former candidate for State Comptroller and brief candidate for New York City Mayor.  He's recently been noted because his ex, Nancy Shevell is dating Paul McCartney.  If the Democrats stay with Kirstin Gillibrand, and runs as the establishment/favorite/incumbent -- Blakeman could gain traction.
 
Senator Schumer's seat is up in 2010 as well -- but no one seriously sees him at risk.

David A. Singer is a former political consultant/campaign professional and political junkie currently toiling as a lawyer in Westchester and managing real estate and media investments.

Comments   

0 #1 feiner vulnerable 2010-01-20 23:41
closer to home, feiner, a career politician, is facing a scandal a week. he is quite vulnerable and his support is tissue thin. more financial blasts are expected implicating his reckless conduct.

his hand picked town clerk is now up on ethics charges and feiner was just caught violating town law by using the town's attorney for his own personal lawsuit against the parking district.

most notably, feiner supporters have abandoned him (as we saw in the spano-astorino race).

greenburgh's liberation may yet happen.
Quote

Add comment

Schools

Community Organizations Voice Support for the Proposed 2015-16 Scarsdale School Budget

Community Organizations Voice Support for the Proposed 2015-16 Scarsdale School Budget

The Board of Education met on the evening of April 13 to hear from community organizations on the proposed budget. The meeting turned out to be brief ...

READ MORE...

Real Estate

Scarsdale Homes: Now and Then

Scarsdale Homes: Now and Then

Builders are in full swing in Scarsdale – razing old homes, adding to existing ones and building ever-larger homes to suit prospective buyers. Whateve...

READ MORE...

Parenting

Test or Opt-Out: The Discussion Continues

Test or Opt-Out: The Discussion Continues

The battle over mandated state testing and teacher evaluations continued this week in the schools, the State Assembly and on television.

According to Ly...

READ MORE...

Shout it Out

Firefighter Dan Brown Promoted to Captain

Firefighter Dan Brown Promoted to Captain

Representatives from the Scarsdale Fire Department, Police Force, Village Managers Office, elected officials, family and friends all gathered at the P...

READ MORE...

Around Town

Anti-Semitic Incident at Local Synagogue

Anti-Semitic Incident at Local Synagogue

Rabbi Jeffrey Brown and President Donna Ruskin of Scarsdale Synagogue Tremont Temple Emanuel on Ogden Road reported that a children's block bearing a ...

READ MORE...

Local Finds

Mayor Defends Second Tax Revaluation at BOT Meeting

Mayor Defends Second Tax Revaluation at BOT Meeting

Former Trustee Robert Harrison and Scarsdale Forum President Bob Berg continued to ask the Board of Trustees to reconsider a decision to conduct a sec...

READ MORE...

Events

Comedy Night at the Center@862

Comedy Night at the Center@862

Local storyteller and former Scarsdale resident Sandi Marx will perform on Saturday night April 18 in an evening of comedy at the Center @ 862 at 862 ...

READ MORE...

The Goods

What's In for Spring at the Golden Horseshoe

What's In for Spring at the Golden Horseshoe

Now that a few daffodils have emerged, it looks like there might be spring after all. Warmer weather means a change in wardrobe and to find out what's...

READ MORE...

Village Voices

Mayor Announces Almost $1.3mm in Funding for Road Repairs in Scarsdale

Mayor Announces Almost $1.3mm in Funding for Road Repairs in Scarsdale

At his first official Village Board meeting on Tuesday night April 14th, Scaarsdale's newly elected Mayor Jon Mark was pleased to announce a big appro...

READ MORE...

Open House

Two Open Houses This Weekend In Edgemont

Two Open Houses This Weekend In Edgemont

A great weekend to explore these two open houses in Edgemont:

30 Mount Joy Avenue , Scarsdale PO, Edgemont
Public Open House: Sunday, April 19, 2015 2pm ...

READ MORE...

People

Kerry Kennedy to Speak at the LWVS Luncheon

Kerry Kennedy to Speak at the LWVS Luncheon

Kerry Kennedy, president of the Robert F. Kennedy Center for Justice and Human Rights, and author of New York Times best seller, Being Catholic Now: P...

READ MORE...

Good Work

Not Your Usual Spring Break: SHS Students Travel to China

Not Your Usual Spring Break: SHS Students Travel to China

When the SHS spring break came to a close, some students gushed about tans from the Bahamas, family adventures in Europe, and a lot of Netflix at home...

READ MORE...

Bulletin Board

Powassan Virus: What You Need To Know

Powassan Virus: What You Need To Know

An alarming tick-born virus has emerged in the Northeast and poses risks to adults and children. Powassan virus is a tick-borne disease that can be tr...

READ MORE...

first
  
last
 
 
start
stop

Programs for Scarsdale Kids