Scarsdale Village Should Rescind Ryan's Voodoo Valuation
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- Written by Joanne Wallenstein
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This letter was sent to Scarsdale10583 by Nickolai Baturin and Brice and Mayra Kirkendall-Rodríguez:
We attended the June 14th Scarsdale Village meeting to present our qualitative and quantitative analysis to you, as our elected officials, and to our fellow Scarsdalians. We provided evidence that there are numerous flaws in J.F. Ryan's model. Additionally, we explained that the model governance was very weak, because the Village awarded JF Ryan a contract without requiring him to compete with any other firm, no one in the Village confirmed and documented J.F. Ryan's credentials, Ryan's data and assumptions were not validated by anyone who is quantitatively qualified, no quantitative professional audited the whole process and model, and the whole process and model inputs were not made transparent to Scarsdale residents until after the revaluation had been completed. Weak model governance means that the model is neither robust nor credible. Hence, this model is invalid for the purpose for which it was designed, which was to determine the value of Scarsdalians' homes. Using this model will push many people out of Scarsdale which will adversely impact both the village and school administration's budgets.
At the village meeting, we had opportunity to hear from other citizens with impeccable quantitative expertise. For example, Neel Daniels, who has a background in statistics and who conducts independent validation of models that are used by banks, explained that when validating a model, it is important to ascertain that the outcomes are reasonable. He concurred with our analysis that Ryan's model needed to have been tested to see if it would predict the value of homes and that the Ryan model should have been validated and audited independently. Also, David Han, explained in the meeting that in his analysis he found that the 'Ryan model is calibrated with the data from July 2014 and Sept. 2015 and the assessor claims the model has a very good goodness-of-fit, which is clearly an in-sample result but the out-of-sample tells a different story. The assessor used construction grade to manipulate the assessed value to match transaction price! The model calibration is inappropriate.'
Another resident, Kai Tang, whose background is in research and development as an engineer in semiconductor development for over a decade, explained that 'Ryan's assessment doesn't pass the sanity or the smell check.' Mr. Tang is correct. The changes were massive in Ryan's revaluation in comparison to Tyler's. 1 in 5 homes had a total assed value change of over 20%. The changes in house AVs were even more extreme; 25% of house AVs went up more than 18% and another 25% went down more than 31%, while 25% of land AVs went up more than 24%.
We cannot emphasize enough that history is littered with cases where weak model governance and invalidated models have had dire financial and economic consequences. For example, flawed and invalidated residential and commercial real estate models were one of the main causes of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, which negative effects are still being felt across many parts of the US and globally. More recently, a congressional inquiry determined that one of the reasons that JPMorgan lost over $7 billion dollars in 2012-2013, in what is known as the 'Whale Scandal' was improper model usage and changing from one model to another, when derivatives traders did not like the results of the first model.
The exchange between the mayor and village attorney and the citizenry on Tuesday has left us with even more questions than when we first started reverse engineering the Ryan model on June 1st.
We pose the following questions and respectfully request a public answer, since transparency is a cornerstone of democracy.
1. Who is the village official or officials who selected JF Ryan to be the monitor for the Tyler revaluation and when?
2. What metrics were used to select Ryan to be a monitor? What does a monitor do? Who in the Village ascertained that he performed well?
3. Who decided and why that a new revaluation should be conducted?
4. What village official selected Ryan to conduct the 2016 revaluation? On what basis was the decision made and where is that documented? Did anyone ask for referrals or recommendations attesting to Ryan's expertise either as an appraiser or as a modeler and was that documented?
5. Did Ryan disclose all inputs and assumption to village officials before he embarked on the revaluation process? If so, where is this documented?
6. Thus far, we have not found evidence that J.F. Ryan has modeling qualifications. Did the village verify that Ryan has modeling expertise? If so where is that documented? Did village officials ascertain where he has used models before and who validated them? Was Scarsdale the first time he used his flawed model largely based on a drive by methodology?
7. Through our research thus far, we have found, that Ryan appraised residential and commercial properties in New Canaan, Stamford, and Sherman, Connecticut. In those appraisals, he conducted on site visits. Why did Scarsdale officials not require onsite visits be part of the Ryan model?
8. What fiduciary duty do you have to the Scarsdale citizenry in respect to conducting revaluations?
9. Have you given consideration to the very important remarks that resident Robert Berg stated at the village meeting, 'The Ryan revaluation calls into serious question whether the time has come to replace our non-partisan system of uncontested elections for Village office with something else, where voters have a choice, and where candidates have to let the voters know their positions on important issues in town – like another revaluation or historic preservation?'
10. Have you taken into account that using Ryan's flawed model will hurt the Scarsdale School Administration's capital plans and budgets, which in turn will anger even more residents?
It is important for Scarsdale village officials to establish a standard of how often it will conduct revaluations and utilizing what methodology. If village officials are going to be changing models randomly, this will perpetually be another example of weak model governance. If you change models, you will need to establish and document why a model is going to be changed, what are the differences in the model, and what are the limitations of the new model. Moreover, because you will have different methodologies, any comparison that you make of how property values have changed or any predictions of how they may change in the future would be invalid. Citizens, the village, and the Scarsdale school administration will not be able to create valid forecasts of what taxes might be to different methodologies. For the sake of Scarsdalians, the Scarsdale school administration's budget, and our village's reputation, we urge the honorable mayor and trustees to invalidate Ryan's voodoo valuation.
The Revaluation Train Wreck Has Arrived
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- Written by Mayra Kirkendall-Rodriguez
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This letter was sent to Scarsdale10583 for publication by Mayra Kirkendall-Rodriguez:
A number of us have been analyzing the Scarsdale 2016 revaluation and have found significant flaws in how the revaluation process was conducted and how the model was created. Village management has not been transparent with the community as to how the revaluation was subcontracted. For months, Scarsdale resident, Robert Berg has correctly been highlighting the lack of transparency of in the revaluation process.
Model risk management was extremely weak. The consultant did not disclose to the public the inputs and assumptions to the model, what calculations were chosen and how they were done, and whether the model was tested and backtested. There is no evidence that an independent validator validated the assumptions and data; there is also no proof that someone independent of the whole process audited the model. All of this is essential to creating and implementing a model.
If Scarsdale residents believe that they have been erroneously assessed, please sign this petition.
Additionally, here is the link to all the documents that you need to grieve your taxes. You can make an appointment to contest the revaluation; there are various time slots on June 21st.
Having this type of opacity will lead to a tremendous uncertainty each year as to how much taxpayers have to pay. This uncertainty will adversely impact our property values. Who wants to move to a city where they have no idea how taxes are being assessed fairly? Uncertainty of future tax receipts will also make it difficult for the village and the Scarsdale school administration to forecast properly what their income and expenses can be.
Village Seeks Volunteers to Serve on Boards and Councils
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- Written by Joanne Wallenstein
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The Personnel Committee of the Village Board of Trustees has announced vacancies on the following Boards, Councils and Committees:
- Cable Television Commission
- Conservation Advisory Council
- Committee for Historic Preservation
- Council on People with Disabilities
- Advisory Council on Human Relations
- Scarsdale Arts Council
Trustee Jane Veron, Chair of the Personnel Committee, encourages residents to apply for these positions by submitting their names, together with a listing of community service and relevant professional background. It is also helpful for Scarsdale residents to recommend other residents for consideration. Please submit contact information including email addresses. The information may be submitted in one of two ways:
Via the Village Website – At www.scarsdale.com, click "read more" under:
* Volunteers Needed for Boards and Councils (located under Village News on the home page). On the next screen, complete the on-line application form under "Boards and Councils Applications" and follow the on-screen instructions.
Via Village Hall – Applications should be forwarded to Trustee Jane Veron at Village Hall, 1001 Post Road, Scarsdale NY 10583.
Residents should feel free to contact the Village Clerk, Donna Conkling at 914-722-1175 or via e-mail dconkling@scarsdale.com for further information.
Pursuant to the general policy adopted by the Village Board, guidelines for membership on Scarsdale's appointed Boards, Councils and Committees cover four areas:
1. Residency: Boards, Committees and Advisory Councils are comprised of residents of the Village. While comments from outside the community can be sought as needed, actions recommended or taken by Boards, Committees and Advisory Councils should ultimately reflect the views of Village residents.
2. Professional or Business Affiliation: Various professional skills and training are required by Village law or deemed desirable by the Village Board of Trustees for the successful fulfillment of some Board, Council or Committee charters.
3. Civic Interest and Involvement: The majority of the members of Village Boards and Councils are appointed by reason of demonstrated interest in Village affairs, through volunteer involvement. Scarsdale is the beneficiary of a long history of voluntary civic endeavors. Since the overriding purpose of Boards, Committees and Councils is to assure the continuation of high community standards, it is appropriate that members on Boards, Committees and Councils be those residents who have demonstrated willingness and initiative to work in support of this objective.
4. Specialized Knowledge: Certain Boards, Committees and Councils benefit by having one or more members with specialized knowledge. For example, the Land Use Boards (Board of Appeals, Planning Board, and Board of Architectural Review) benefits from the services of residents with a background in architecture, architectural design or engineering; the Cable Television Commission benefits by having people with knowledge of the communications industry; the Advisory Council on People With Disabilities benefits from the experience of residents with disabilities; the Advisory Council on Youth benefits from people who have worked with young people; and the Advisory Council on Parks and Recreation benefits from having a parent active in the Recreation Department's Elementary School Sports Program.
Applications should be made in writing and should include information on the candidates' civic involvement, work experience or other qualifications in sufficient detail to help the Village Board evaluate the prospective candidate. Applications should be submitted via the Village website or sent to Trustee Jane Veron at Village Hall, 1001 Post Road, Scarsdale, NY 10583.
The following are the terms of office, and responsibilities for members appointed to the aforementioned Boards, Councils and Committees:
CABLE TELEVISION COMMISSION - (5 years, open-ended terms) Works with the Village's Cable Coordinator to develop interesting and creative public access programming for Scarsdale Public Television (SPTV -- channels 42/76) and Scarsdale Government Television (SGTV -- channels 43/75). Assists with the training of volunteers and works within the Scarsdale Community to raise awareness and increase resident participation. Advises the Village Board of Trustees with regard to cable television policy. Negotiates the renewal of cable franchise agreements with cable providers. Commissioners are expected to attend monthly meetings.
CONSERVATION ADVISORY COUNCIL - (2 years, open-ended terms). Advises the Village Board on such matters as programs, areas, facilities, public relations and other matters pertaining to environmental sustainability. The Conservation Advisory Council is currently engaged in a
study regarding the appropriate design and installations of solar panels in residential zoning districts.
COMMITTEE FOR HISTORIC PRESERVATION - (3 years, two terms). Determines if a structure located in the Village for which a permit for demolition has been requested is a structure of historical importance.
ADVISORY COUNCIL ON PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES - (2 years, open-ended terms). Advises and assists the Village Board in matters of concern to residents with disabilities. Assists with programs and activities, increases public awareness of the needs of the disabled, acts as liaison with other Advisory Councils and promotes participation in community affairs by disabled persons.
ADVISORY COUNCIL ON HUMAN RELATIONS - (2 years, open-ended terms). Considers and recommends actions at the request of the Village Board to foster mutual respect and understanding among all members of the community.
REPRESENTATIVE TO SCARSDALE ARTS COUNCIL - (2 years, open-ended terms). At-large representative (total of 4 appointed by the Mayor) to the Scarsdale Arts Council Board. The Council's mission is to encourage the arts to flourish in Scarsdale by, among other methods, improving communication among arts programs and by attracting grant support and to raise public awareness and participation in the arts.
Is Your Child Over-Coached?
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Its spring time again! And kids are outside playing, often on organized teams. It ought to be fun, but sometimes issues arise. Here are your questions about sports and coaching with answers from Backyard Sports.
Question: Our son is in elementary school and he loves playing basketball with friends in our driveway. We encouraged him to join the basketball program at school, but it's not quite what we expected. There are a lot of coaching drills, but little "free-play" and this is frustrating our son who just wants to play. Do you think our child may not be ready for an organized team sport?
Answer: It's a great question. The truth is, we need to approach coaching in the reverse order. When kids are young they should be exploring. That's the time when they should be developing creativity. As a child reaches the upper grades, especially high school, and wants to take his sport skills to the next level, that's when you really need a coach. That's when the value of a coach's guidance is key, because he can bring the athlete's ability to a level that could not be achieved alone.
The main reason why parents are so critical of coaches when their child is in high school is because our sports model in the US involves so much coaching from the get-go. The idea of an iconic coach doesn't exist anymore because kids have had so many coaches over a long development process.
Here's an example: Although it's popular internationally, soccer has never broken through to an elite level in the United States the way it has in Europe or South America. Why not? Because in the US we put too much emphasis on drills and coaching. Conversely, in Europe and South America, the kids are not coached; they are left to basically dance with a soccer ball. The idea of watching an American youth program play freely or play with that sense of exploration and creativity doesn't exist. Our kids are thrown into laps and lines at a very, very young age and they don't know how to play naturally.
The Big Takeaway: Sports is about playing freely and bringing a group of individuals together cohesively. The coach is responsible for creating that environment. The players' job is to learn to love the game and athletically express themselves at a very high level.
Question: My child is very shy and we thought that joining a team sport might be a way to get her out of her shell. Can a shy, introverted child flourish in a competitive sports environment?
Answer: First we need to understand that a team is comprised of young players with differing levels of ability and unique personalities. The model of a successful team is one where all those unique individuals can come together in harmony. Not everyone is going to be a leader. Not everyone is going to be a superstar. Not everyone is going to have that kind of flamboyant take charge personality. There's room on teams for kids across the temperament and personality spectrum.
I think more than anything, the notion of a shy child being unsuccessful on a playing field is a manifestation of skewed parental observations. Parents see attention and accolades going to the assertive or extroverted kids or to players who are scoring the goals and lose confidence in their shy reserved child's ability to compete. But not everyone is a goal scorer. We have role players on teams. It takes those role players to make a team successful.
That said, a great program or a great coach will recognize shyness in a young player. The right program and coach will shepherd that kid so she finds HER role and makes her feel successful in the environment, which aligns with who she is and what her ability level is.
The Big Takeaway: Once the child is accepted among her teammates and sees firsthand that she can play this sport, interact with other kids and do well in her own way, it's a wonderful benefit for the child. That's the success of the playing field. That's where we see the skills learned between the lines positively affecting a child's life outside the lines. The idea of getting out of ones comfort zone without fear of making a mistake translates to so many other aspects of a child's life. They are going to remember that lesson and apply it to their schoolwork, their relationships and their career. They're going to have more confidence in themselves.
Question: My daughter plays basketball and her team recently added a new coach. The change has been difficult because the new coach has a style that is incompatible with my daughter's personality. She often feels berated and alienated. How should we deal with this?
Answer: Nothing can inhibit a child's experience more than a difficult relationship with a coach. In a previous generation, we had our fair share of Little League Dad's who, through their inexperience or gruff behavior, made the exercise miserable for everyone. However, at that time, the consequences weren't as severe, because we had a chance to play ball on our own the other six days of the week. Today, given the extended commitment of sports and lack of "free play," the relationship with a coach takes on an added degree of importance.
What is a parent to do when the child feels compromised, alienated, or worse, bullied by a team coach? I recently read a post by John Sullivan on his Changing the Game blog about this specific situation. I admire and support the manner in which Sullivan turns this issue into a positive conversation that can be addressed both with the child and the offending coach. I recommend reading the post and taking initiative on his concrete steps for arranging a meeting with your child's coach, as well as setting realistic expectations on the outcome of the conversation.
Click here for more FAQ's and answers from Backyard Sports.
Show your Pride with a Raiders Lawn Sign
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- Written by Joanne Wallenstein
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Maroon and White, the parent booster organization for Scarsdale athletics, is celebrating their 50th birthday this spring. There is still time to show your support by purchasing and displaying a Raiders lawn sign. Featuring the Raiders logo, these are now on sale for $50 and can be ordered here. (Under IRS guidelines the estimated value of the sign is not substantial. The full amount of your payment is therefore a deductible contribution). Signs will be delivered around May 1.
