Pre-Election Predictions
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So this was supposed to be the New York voter's autumn of discontent; the year that all incumbents would get tossed out on their collective rears and a massive number of reformers would march in and take over the Governor’s seat and both houses of the state legislature (and possibly even abolish one of them!) It seemed possible that the reform swell would take out many, many incumbents -- in both primary elections --where reform minded Democrats would take out ossified career senators -- and in the general election as well. Yet none of this materialized. Few primary contests ensued against incumbent State legislators, and no truly viable contests will be at the top of the ballot this year. This will drive down turnout by both parties – making the local races ones where the get-out-the-vote efforts will be the key to victory or defeat.
While nationwide there’s a strong anti-incumbent trend likely to turn one if not both houses of Congress over to the GOP – New York will prove to be a lot less productive for the GOP – except possibly in the State Senate, where it’s likely that the GOP will regain control. Here are my predictions for statewide and local races:
Governor: Carl Paladino probably never had much of a shot in the general election – but made things a lot worse for himself and his supporters by continuously creating a negative personal presence in the news for 3- weeks running. Had Rick Lazio or Steve Levy been the GOP candidate – it would have been much closer. Once a candidate’s character becomes the primary issue in a race – he/she is toast. Prediction: Cuomo wins 65%-35% over Paladino.
US Senate: No contests here -- both Chuck Schumer and Kirstin Gillibrand will win handily. Schumer’s margin will be about 60%-40% over Jay Townsend (who?) and Gillibrand will win by 10 points over former Westchester Rep Joe DioGuardi, who’s campaign never really gained traction.
US Congress #18: 11-term Democratic incumbent Nita Lowey (who defeated Joe DioGuardi to take the seat in 1988) will win handily over Jim Russell and write-in candidate Cortes DeRussy.
US Congress #19: Two-term Democrat John Hall is in a tough race against Republican Nan Hayworth. Given the leanings of the district, this will be close, but I’m predicting a small margin win for Hayworth.
NYS Comptroller: This is the most interesting statewide race because you actually have a qualitative choice. To date most observers of New York State Government believe that the unelected incumbent Tom DiNapoli has been a competent holder of the office. But the Republican candidate, Harry Wilson, has ignited some bi-partisan passion for his candidacy. DiNapoli tags Wilson as a “Wall Street Wizard”, and in fact Wilson may be that. His most recent accomplishment was serving on the Obama Automobile restructuring task force – and was the primary driver (no pun intended) of the plan that salvaged and rejuvenated General Motors. Although there are severe weaknesses at the top of the statewide GOP ticket, I’m predicating that Wilson will eek out a win by about 2-3% over DiNapoli and net the only statewide win for Republicans this year.
NYS Attorney General: here you have no incumbent in the race – former State Senator Eric Schneiderman survived a 5-candidate Democratic primary for his party’s nomination. The GOP picked Staten Island DA, Dan Donovan. Donovan has been endorsed by Mayor Bloomberg and former Mayor Ed Koch. But given the weakness at the top of the ticket, there hasn’t been a groundswell for Donovan in this race – and the Cuomo coat-tails will carry the better-recognized Schneiderman to a 5% victory over Donovan.
NYS Senate # 37: In a fiercely contested race, 25-year Democratic incumbent Suzi Oppenheimer faces Republican political newcomer Bob Cohen. Cohen has gone after Oppenheimer’s long tenure in office, while Oppenheimer has gone starkly personal and negative with mailers and commercials that tag Cohen as a “slumlord” – allegations of which were refuted by the Westchester County Fair Campaign Practices Committee. All this shows that the Oppenheimer camp is deeply worried about this race. The Democratic registration outnumbers Republicans by 2:1 – but turnout will be key. This is pretty much a jump ball – particularly now with the New York Times’ endorsement of Cohen’s candidacy. Late polls indicate that undecideds and independents may be breaking for Cohen. As an aside, had former Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld run again this year, she would have likely defeated Oppenheimer. Feld, who would have had more name recognition than Cohen, chose not to make the race in part because she was disgusted at the GOP leadership role in the Pedro Espada fiasco.
NYS Senate #34: Democratic Senator (and Deputy Majority Leader) Jeff Klein is opposed by Republican civic activist Frank Vernuccio. Klein will win easily. Assuming Klein wins – he may be in line to be the new majority leader (if the Dems hold onto their majority) or most certainly will be the minority leader if the Dems lose their majority.
NYS Senate #35: two-term Democratic incumbent Andrea-Stewart Cousins will prevail with a 3% victory over former Yonkers City Councilman Liam McLaughlin.
NYS Senate #36: Democratic Senator Ruth Hassell-Thompson is running against Robert Diamond. Hassell-Thompson will win handily.
NYS Senate #40: this district straddles northern Westchester and Putnam Counties. Another hard fought race that looks like a jump ball at this point – between the incendiary Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball and Democratic Westchester County Legislator Mike Kaplowitz. Given the weakness at the top of the GOP ticket and Kaplowitz’ center-right campaign, I’m predicting a small margin win by Kaplowitz.
NYS Assembly #87: Incumbent Democrat Gary Pretlow will breeze to victory over Independence Party candidate Sam Rivers.
NYS Assembly #88: Democratic incumbent Amy Paulin will easily defeat her Republican opponent, Rene Atayan.
NYS Assembly #89: Republican incumbent Bob Castelli attained the seat in a special election earlier this year when Adam Bradley left to become mayor of White Plains. In the February special election, Castelli prevailed over County Legislator Peter Harckham in a low-turnout race. In September Tom Roach, the White Plains Common Council President defeated Harrison’s Mark Jaffe in the Democratic primary for the right to take on Castelli. Although the voter registration favors Democrats in this district, Castelli’s moderate creds will carry him to a 5% victory over Roach.
NYS Assembly #90: Democratic incumbent Sandra Galef will easily defeat repeat GOP candidate Bill Gouldman.
NYS Assembly #91: Popular Democratic incumbent George Latimer will easily defeat Republican Bill Reed.
NYS Assembly #92: In an open-seat contest for the seat of defeated Attorney General candidate Richard Brodsky, long time Democratic County Legislator Tom Abinanti will easily win over Republican Thomas Bock.
NYS Assembly #93: a somewhat hotly contested race favors incumbent Democrat (former Republican) Mike Spano over GOP candidate Ramondelli.
So locally, with few exceptions, incumbency will once again be the rule.
David A. Singer is a former political consultant/campaign professional and political junkie currently toiling as a lawyer in Westchester and managing real estate and media investments.
Burglary, Thefts and Stolen Signs from the Police
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Scarsdale Police: Burglars entered an Eton Road home by breaking the window on a rear door of the house on the evening of October 22nd. The house was tossed and jewelry was stolen. The house alarm was not activated at the time of the break-in.
Missing: On October 20th a Heathcote Road woman reported that a brown leather chest, containing 14 pieces of silver flatware was missing from her attic. The silverware dates from the 1960’s and is worth approximately $3,000. She last saw the box a month ago and since that time handymen and potential homebuyers have visited the house.
A purse was stolen out of a car that was parked in the Christie Place garage on the afternoon of October 24. A Whig Road woman reported that the rear driver’s side door of her Honda Pilot was unlocked, allowing the theft of her purse, which contained credit cards, keys, a blackberry and id cards.
A Ridgedale Road man reported that political signs for Democratic candidates were removed from his front lawn sometime on October 17 -18. He suspects that Republican operatives may have taken the signs. In addition, on 10/19 the same man called police to report that a car parked near his home had a swastika on it. Police checked with the owner of the car and found that the symbol was actually a Hindu symbol that denotes prosperity.
A Sharon Lane man left his bike unlocked at the Scarsdale Train Station on the morning of 10/18. When he returned at 7 pm, the bike was gone.
Harassed: On October 21 a 17 year-old girl reported that an ex-friend was harassing her, by sending derogatory messages via text, blackberry and instant messaging. Police went to the home of the girl who was sending the messages and told her mother to tell her daughter to stop the harassment.
Stranger at the Door: Police responded to a call from a Walworth Avenue home at 5 am on October 19 where an unknown man was ringing the resident’s doorbell. When police arrived they found Jose Ramos, age 61, who claimed that he was lost and trying to get home to Stevens Street in White Plains. Police called a taxi to take the man home.
A Madison Road woman locked her 15 month-old son in the car by mistake when the car was parked at the Scarsdale Library on the morning of October 19th. Police called the Heathcote Gulf station and they sent someone to unlock the car.
Reckless Driver: On October 20, A Brewster Road woman called police at 9:16 am to report a reckless driver near the school. She provided police the car model and license plate number. Police stopped the driver and warned him to slow down or he would receive a summons in the future.
Misunderstanding: An unidentified caller reported that two boys were trespassing inside a Wayside Lane home at 4:40 pm on October 22nd. Police went to the house to check and found two boys in the garage. When the boys saw the police they quickly closed the garage door and tried to go into the house. Police ordered the boys to come outside and found that one of the boys was the resident of the house, and the other two were his friends.
Coyote Watch
- On 10/18 at 3:40 pm on Deerfield Lane
- On 10/19 at 9:15 am at the Greenacres School
- On 10/19 at 1:33 pm on Reynal Crossing
- On 10/19 at 4:22 on Black Walnut Road
- On 10/20 at 1:48 pm on Carthage Road
- On 10/20 at 6:22 pm on Vanderbilt Road
- On 10/20 at 7:04 pm at Secor and Wynmor Roads
- On 10/20 at 8:00 pm on Mamaroneck Road at Foxhall Place
- On 10/21 at 2:18 pm at Sheldrake and Mamaroneck Roads
- On 10/21 at 2:55 pm on Wheelock and Brookby Roads
- On 10/21 at 3:41 pm at Foxhall and Secor Roads
- On 10/21 at 4:11 pm in the yard of a Foxhall Road home
- On 10/21 at 10 pm on Sprague and Lyons Road
- On 10/23 at 1:25 pm at Ardmore and Carthage Roads
- On 1024 at 8:54 am at Penn Boulevard and Franklin Road
Greenburgh Police – In Hartsdale a Columbia Road woman reported that an unknown man entered her place of business on October 18 at 5 pm and asked if he could scan the premises with a metal detector because it was his hobby. She replied, “absolutely not” and the man left the premises.
Roommates on Maple Avenue in Hartsdale got into a nasty dispute on the night of October 18 when one roommate parked her car on the grass because the other one refused to share the driveway. The roommate who refused to share the driveway threatened to punch in the other woman’s face, kicked the room to her door and posted signs around the house to tell the complainant that she was not wanted. The complainant subsequently reported that family and friends of the roommate were posting threatening comments on her Facebook page.
Police were called when two employees in the kitchen at T.G.I. Fridays got into a fight on the morning of October 20th. Both were pulling at a kitchen utensil when it cut one man’s hand. The Manager agreed to speak to the two to work it out.
The owner of Venetian Delight on Central Avenue in Hartsdale was paid with a fraudulent check for $156.00 worth of food delivered to A White Plains address on October 3rd. Though he has tried to contact the woman who wrote the check, he has been unable to find her.
A postman was bitten in the calf by a dog when he was delivering mail to a Glenwood Road home in Scarsdale on October 21. The 6 year-old Wheaton Terrier had been vaccinated.
A 1992 BMW, parked on Clarendon Place was damaged overnight on 10/23. The windshield was shattered, the driver’s side window and mirror were broken and there was damage to a rear plastic window.
Scarsdale Emergency Workers Respond to Suicide Attempt
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An attempt at the third suicide in our area in the last week was made early Sunday morning in Scarsdale Village while children were painting Halloween windows outside. Whether the impetus for the suicides was the economy, the change in seasons or personal demons is anyone’s guess.
At 10 am on Sunday October 23rd local police learned that a Scarsdale man had called a suicide hotline, and they were able to track the call to Scarsdale Village. Police rushed to a village store and forced their way into the locked store.
In the basement they found the storeowner who had attempted to take his own life. Police and emergency workers responded and reported that he was still alive. The Scarsdale Village Ambulance Corps transported the man to the emergency room at White Plains Hospital and his condition is unknown.
The victim is a well-liked retailer in Scarsdale Village who has been in town for as long as anyone can remember. His attempt follows the purported suicide of Thomas J. Hill in Hartsdale on October 19th and the death of Corie Vidal, a favorite member of the SHS staff who took her own life on October 21st.
Note: Due to the sensitive nature of the incident, the victim's name, which appeared in the original report, has been removed.
A Stranger in a Scarsdale Basement and A Death in Hartsdale
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This just in from the Greenburg Police Department: On Tuesday night (10/19) at 10:30 pm, a Hartsdale woman returned to her Keats Avenue home and found her husband, Thomas J. Hill dead in the backyard. According to information released by the Town of Greenburgh Police Department, it appears that the 54-year-old man shot himself, but an autopsy is being done to determine the cause of death.
Intruder: On the afternoon of October 15 the owner of Chopstix Restaurant on Garth Road found a stranger in the basement of the restaurant. The intruder claimed that he was dropped off in the area and was looking for a doctor’s office. As Chopstix in no way resembles a doctor’s office, police were suspicious and searched the man who had no weapons and had not taken anything from the basement. He was identified as Anthony Lindsey of Mt Vernon and a check of his identification revealed no outstanding warrants though the man admitted that he was on parole for an offense committed outside of New York State. As there was no reason to detain him, he was released.
Car break-in: Swarthmore Road residents returned from a trip overseas and found that their car had been vandalized in their absence. The driver’s side window was broken and a GPS was taken from the 2006 Suzuki which was parked in front of the house. The incident occurred on October 9th.
Threats: On October 16th a 19 year-old Brambach Road girl complained of receiving threatening text message and disturbing voice mails from an ex-boyfriend. The girl blocked the man’s phone number from her cell phone and blocked his user name on Facebook.
Stranger at the Door: On October 13 a man came to the door of a Fox Meadow road home with an unlabeled package and asked the homeowner to identify herself, claiming that he had a package for her. When she refused and told him she was going to call the police, a woman came to the door with the same package. The woman also refused to identify herself and left the package at the door. The homeowner told police she would ask her husband what might be in the box before opening it.
Gone: An Apple iPhone was reported stolen from the locker of a Scarsdale Middle School student on October 13th.
Lockwood Road residents reported that a package delivered to their home by UPS on October 14 was stolen. The package contained a drum pad valued at $30.
Rowdy Teens: At 9:30, an employee of Starbucks in Scarsdale Village called to say that about 15 teenagers were roughhousing on the footbridge above the tracks at Scarsdale Train Station. Police sent the kids on their way.
Loud kids were reported at George Field at 11 pm on 10/16. Police arrived and the kids dispersed.
Just before midnight, police received a report that some kids had placed a large rock in the road at the intersection of Walworth and Greenacres Avenues. Police went to the scene and removed the rock.
Disputes: At 9:50 am on 10/17, a Cooper Road man called police to ask for help in getting his wife to drop off the children at his house, per their custody agreement. A court officer arrived, the children were turned over to the father and the mother left the scene.
On Sunday afternoon, a Scarsdale man called police concerning dogs that were running around the high school tennis courts. Since dogs are not allowed to run on school grounds, he asked the dogs owners to take them away. The owners of the dogs became verbally abusive and aggressive and refused to comply. When police arrived they issued one of the men, Philip Taddeo of Yonkers, a summons for violating a local ordinance. Police also found that Taddeo had a suspended license so they instruction his companion to take him home.
Drunk: Eastchester Police found a drunk Scarsdale woman in their jurisdiction at 6 pm on Sunday and drove her back to her home on Edgewood Road. Her husband was home and escorted her inside.
A man called police at 10:20 pm on 10/16 to say that he lost his wallet somewhere between Scarsdale and White Plains. It was determined that the man was drunk and did not know where he lost his wallet, but asked the police to keep his number in case someone turned it in.
A moving truck struck a tree on Garth Road on the afternoon of 10/14 and took down a large branch.
Coyote Watch
- Myrtledale Road at 9:45 am on 10/12
- Dell Road at 4:07 pm on 10/12
- Wynmor Road at 9:56 am on 10/14
- In the backyard of a Marjory Lane home at 10:32 am on 10/14
- In the backyard of an Oneida Road home at 10:57 am on 10/14
- In the driveway of a Myrtledale Road home at 3:30 pm on 10/14
- At Franklin and Harvest Road at 4:11 pm on 10/14
- On Carthage Road at 6:43 pm on 10/14
- On Oakstwain Road at 7:025 am on 10/15
- On Kingston Road at 7:19 am on 10/15
- At the Greenacres School at 8:03 am on 10/15
- On Gorham Court at 12:28 pm on 10/15 going toward Maple Swamp
- A coyote with an injured leg on Eastwoods Lane at 3 pm on 10/17
Thieves Break In to Quaker Ridge Cars
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On Haverford Road vandals entered two cars that were unlocked and parked in the driveway. They stole a Gramin GPS from each car. On Meadow Road, two windows were broken on a 2005 Volvo and a Lanvin handbag, valued at $1,500 as well as $100.00 were stolen. Other items from the car were found scattered on the front lawn of a neighbor’s home. Also on Meadow Road the driver’s side window of a 2010 Honda was broken and a Garmin GPS was stolen. On Penn Boulevard an unlocked 2009 GMC was entered, and thieves made off with an apple computer and computer bag, a wallet, a Marc Jacobs purse and a camera, together valued at $3,650. In addition, other items from the car were found on a neighbor’s property across the street. On Old Lyme Road, the driver’s side window of a 2007 Lexus was broken and an iPod and charger, plus sunglasses were taken from the car.
Dead on Arrival: Anthony Esposito, age 78 of Gaylor Road was pronounced dead by Scarsdale Paramedic Al Garavito. Mr. Esposito’s wife was out and returned home at 6:15 pm on October 7 and found her husband unresponsive at the kitchen table.
Party! Police broke up a drinking party on Harvest Drive, shortly before 11 pm on October 9th and issued a summons to an 18 year-old Scarsdale boy for unlawful possession of alcohol. Police found empty beer cans on the lawn and inside the house and the inebriated host admitted that there was no one over the age of 21 at home. A family friend came to take the boy to her house. Parents of the other youths at the house were called to pick up their kids.
Police asked a group of youths at George Field Park at 10 pm on 10/8 to leave the area and they complied.
At 1:05 am on 10/10 police were called to break up a party on Greenacres Avenue. They found red plastic cups and an empty bottle of Jim Beam but the partiers were gone.
Fraud at CVS on Popham Road –Victor DiRoma, the manager of CVS, called police at 8:50 pm on 10/7 to report that three customers had purchased$1,400 of American Express gift cards and charged them to a fraudulent credit cards. The suspects were described as a black female with long black hair, a black male wearing a black hat and another black female with long black hair, wearing a black and white striped shirt. The transactions were recorded on video.
Gone: A commuter locked his black Showgun bicycle on East Parkway on the morning of October 8. When he returned at 6 pm the bike and his helmet were gone.
Found: A Fox Meadow Road woman found a Le Sports Sac change purse containing $25, a key and a Yogo Joy store business car in the Fox Meadow School playground on October 4th. The purse was turned over to Scarsdale police.
Complaint: Workers doing construction on Popham Road Bridge complained to the police on October 5 that the Freightway Garage Valet was blocking access to the job site with cars. The Valet hopes to design a drop-off process to alleviate problems in the future.
Summons: A Kingston Road man was issued a summons on October 8 for ignoring a stop work order for construction at his house. Police accompanied the representative from Village Hall Enforcement to the Kingston Road home.
Unwanted Guests: An Old Lyme Road man asked police to stop by as a gray car was parked in his driveway. The passengers in the car claimed to be old friends of the resident on Old Lyme. Please told the visitors that the resident no longer wished to see them and instructed them to leave and refrain from making contact in the future.
Police were called to Fox Meadow School at 4 pm on 10/8 when a man with a backpack entered the rear entrance of the school. When he was asked what he was doing in the school, he said he was cutting through the school to Brewster Road. At 6 pm, police received another report of a man wandering near the library.
Disputes: On October 5, an angry high school student approached an Ogden Road woman when he found a ticket on the car he had parked illegally in front of her house. He knocked on the door of the women’s home and asked her if she had called the police. When she replied no, he asked when her husband would be home.
On October 11, a Black Birch Lane mother reported that her daughter was being harassed on the phone by a former friend. Police contacted the girl who was making the calls who now lives in Riverdale. She told police that she believes that her friend in Scarsdale stole $60 in cash and a $200 Tiffany bracelet from her when she visited her in Riverdale. The mother agreed to speak with her daughter and find out what was going on.
Guns: On the afternoon of October 6, a Heathcote Road woman called police to pick up two handguns from her home for safekeeping. On 10/10 a Lebanon Road man called to surrender a found pistol.
Missing: Concerned Brookline Road residents called police at 7 pm on 10/6 to help them locate their 13 year old son who left the house without telling his parents where he was going. By the time the police arrived, the boy’s mother had located him.
A White Plains woman came to the Scarsdale Police station to report that she removed two rings from her hand while getting her nails done at Accent Nails on Harwood Court on October 11 and left the shop without them. When she got home she realized her mistake and called Accent who said the rings were gone. Missing are a diamond ring worth $8,000 and a band with bluestones valued at $1,000.
Fire: Police, and the Scarsdale Fire Department responded to the report of a small fire in the boiler room at 6 Overhill Road at 7 am on 10/7. The Fire Department got it under control.
Suspicious Man: A Sage Terrace woman called police at 8:45 am when she saw a man standing near her yard looking at her house. Police were unable to find the man who was described as Asian and six feet tall.
Help: A Park Road many asked police for assistance moving some of his personal items out of his home on the afternoon of October 7th. Police found that the man’s belongings were already packed and the moving company was permitted to transport the boxes.
Drunk: A Walworth Avenue man reported a drunk man walking in traffic on Walworth at 10 pm on 10/10. Police were unable to locate the suspect.
Animals: A wild turkey was spotted at the intersection of Brite Avenue and Ogden Road shortly before 6 pm on October 4th.
A Hampton Road woman called police about a sick raccoon on the street on October 5. When police arrived, the raccoon had died on the lawn, but another sick raccoon appeared and police shot it. Another sick raccoon was reported on Leatherstocking Lane at 12:35 pm on 10/6
A Sylvan Lane woman called police at 1:38 am on 10/9 when she heard noises in her home. Police found a chipmunk running around the living room and helped get the animal outside.
A Stratton Road woman found a small black and white dog in her yard at 10:20 pm on 10/9. The dog had no tags and police picked up the dog and brought to the New Rochelle Humane Society.
Coyotes were spotted in the following locations:
- In the driveway of a Colvin Road home at 7:20 pm on October 5
- On Sage Terrace at 7:40 pm on 10/5
- At 276 Mamaroneck Road at 2 pm on 10/6
- At 17 Heathcote Road at 3:49 pm on 10/6
- Two coyotes in the driveway of a Bradford Road home at 7 pm on 10/6
- At Walworth and Berkeley Road at 1 pm on 10/7
- On Catherine Road at 3:30 pm on 10/7
- On Wildwood Road at 7:41 am on 10/8
- On Crossway and Wakefield Road at 11:15 pm on 10/8
- On Fayette Road at noon on 10/9
- On 10/9 at 12:49 pm a wet coyote was reported running around the Scarsdale Riding Academy on Mamaroneck Road
- On Leatherstocking Lane at 11:55 am on 10/10
- On Leatherstocking Lane at 7:11 pm on 10/10